Nigeria – qualifications and answer to questions

We have had quite a few comments on our Nigeria post, not least from people concerned that Nigeria is doomed.

So, just to clarify:

  • We think Nigeria has substantial potential. Growth will continue
  • We are also very cognisant of Nigeria’s ability to pull herself back from the brink (a notion from John Campbell’s great book on Nigeria).
  • The elections may play out in many ways. There are substantial risks of violence both during the October primaries and the February elections, but equally the elections may turn out relatively peaceful (the positive side of expectations of rigging or PDP managing to split the opposition).
  • Lastly, the bad news: for now, the underlying trend is negative, which does not mean there will not be growth or improvements in certain areas, rather it means Nigeria is not on the way to sustained, stable growth and less violence.

Hopefully this qualifies. Meanwhile, keep the questions coming!


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